IT IS “one of the few bright spots in the Chinese economy,” says Zeng Ming. He is talking about e-commerce. Mr Zeng, the chief strategy officer for Alibaba, a giant Chinese internet firm, predicts that digital transactions on his firm’s platforms will top 1 trillion yuan ($159 billion) this year—more than Amazon’s and eBay’s combined. That is a bold claim; but consider what happened on Singles Sunday. 

中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭——阿里巴巴集團(tuán)【注1】的總參謀長曾鳴【注2】將電子商務(wù)稱為“中國經(jīng)濟(jì)少有的亮點(diǎn)之一”。他預(yù)測，今年阿里巴巴各平臺的數(shù)字交易額將突破10000億元人民幣（約合1590億美元），超過亞馬遜和 eBay 的交易額總和。曾鳴此言大膽無畏；看看上周日光棍節(jié)那天的情況就可想而知了。

Invented a few years ago by students and seized upon by digital marketers, this festival for lonely hearts falls annually on the 11th day of the 11th month (since 1 is the loneliest number). It is like St Valentine’s Day, only worse. Singletons shower each other with tender gifts: a barrage of pearls; a storm of sweets.

幾年前，一些學(xué)生把每年的11月11日定為單身者的節(jié)日——“光棍節(jié)”【注3】（因?yàn)椤?”是最為“孤獨(dú)”的數(shù)字）。隨后，數(shù)字營銷者抓住了這個商業(yè)機(jī) 遇。光棍節(jié)和情人節(jié)有些類似，只不過沒有情人節(jié)那么美好。在這一天，單身人士會彼此交換很多貼心的禮物：比如大包的珠寶首飾、大把的糖果。

This November 11th they spent a staggering 19 billion yuan on Alibaba’s online platforms—a fourfold increase on a year ago, and more than double what Americans spent online last Cyber Monday (the Monday after Thanksgiving, when retailers urge Americans to shop online). More than 100m purchases were logged, accounting for 80% of the packages shipped that day. Couriers were buried in parcels.

今年11月11日，阿里巴巴各個網(wǎng)絡(luò)平臺的銷售額達(dá)到了驚人的190億元人民幣，比一年前翻了兩番，也是去年“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”當(dāng)天美國網(wǎng)購交易額的兩倍以上 （“網(wǎng)絡(luò)星期一”是感恩節(jié)之后的周一，美國零售商鼓勵人們在這一天在線購物）。根據(jù)記錄，今年11月11日有一億份以上的網(wǎng)購訂單生效，占當(dāng)天總發(fā)貨量的 80%。運(yùn)送包裹的快遞員忙得不可開交。

So life is good for China’s etailers, then? Not exactly. The number of digital marketers is increasing and online sales are booming (see chart). Consumers are enjoying lower prices, better service and more variety. The problem? The pressure on margins in Chinese e-commerce is worse than in America, reckons Elinor Leung of CLSA, a broker. “Almost no one makes money,” she says.

那么，想必中國電商【注4】的日子過得很滋潤吧？不盡然。數(shù)字營銷者的隊(duì)伍越來越龐大，網(wǎng)絡(luò)銷售也是紅紅火火（見圖表）。消費(fèi)者享受著更低的價格、更好的服務(wù)和更大的選擇范圍?？蓡栴}在哪？里昂證券經(jīng)紀(jì)人 Elinor Leung 認(rèn)為，中國電子商務(wù)的利潤壓力比美國還大，“幾乎沒什么人在賺錢”。

The fiercest battles are being fought between online retailers and their bricks-and-mortar rivals. Dangdang, a firm that resembles Amazon, and 360buy, another online retailer, have cut prices ferociously. Tencent, a cash-rich online giant known for its instant-messaging software, is splashing out to win market share. 360buy has also just raised $400m from investors to do the same. But it is unclear how much longer such firms can burn through capital.

傳統(tǒng)實(shí)體企業(yè)是網(wǎng)絡(luò)零售商的競爭對手，二者正在打著幾場最為慘烈的商戰(zhàn)。當(dāng)當(dāng)網(wǎng)和京東商城展開了一 場血拼價格戰(zhàn)（前者是類似亞馬遜的公司，后者是另一家網(wǎng)絡(luò)零售商）。以即時通訊軟件而聞名的騰訊公司是一家財大氣粗的網(wǎng)絡(luò)巨頭，它也為占據(jù)市場份額花費(fèi)了 大筆資金。前不久，京東商城還進(jìn)行了四億美元的融資，同樣是為了提高其市場占有率。但這些公司的“燒錢”行為還能支撐多久？不得而知。

That is especially so since physical retailers are fighting back. Walmart has increased its stake in Yihaodian, a local e-commerce firm. Jeff Walters of BCG, a consultancy, argues that in a good year a retailer like Walmart could open 40-50 physical stores, just a sliver of the Chinese market, “which is why e-commerce is so important for them here”. Many Western rivals have flopped in China with the big-box strategy; including, most recently, Best Buy (an electronics chain) and Home Depot (a do-it-yourself shop).

這種情況尤為明顯，因?yàn)閷?shí)體零售商已經(jīng)發(fā)起了反攻。沃爾瑪增加了自己在中國本土電子商務(wù)公司——“1號店”【注5】所持有的股份。來自咨詢公司 BCG 的 Jeff Walters 認(rèn)為：在效益好的年份里，像沃爾瑪這樣的零售商可以開設(shè)四五十家實(shí)體店，而這個數(shù)目在中國市場上只是九牛一毛—— “所以電子商務(wù)對這些公司來說非常重要”。很多在中國推行倉儲直營模式的西方競爭者都栽了跟頭，比如最近的百思買（一家電子產(chǎn)品連鎖企業(yè)）和家得寶（一家 自助式家居建材用品零售商）【注6】。

Suning and Gome, big Chinese high-street electronics stores, are putting an expanded range of products on their websites. Alan Lau of McKinsey & Co, a consultancy, says they are also pushing manufacturers to stop offering etailers such big discounts. He estimates that in 2011 computers and handsets sold online were 12% cheaper than in stores; this year they are only 7% cheaper. As the gap gets smaller, so do nearly everyone’s margins.

中國兩家大型連鎖家電銷售企業(yè)——蘇寧電器和國美電器都在各自網(wǎng)站上擴(kuò)大了產(chǎn)品門類。麥肯錫咨詢公司的 Alan Lau 認(rèn)為，兩家企業(yè)此舉也在向制造商施壓，促使其減小對電商的打折力度。他估計，2011年網(wǎng)上銷售的電腦和手機(jī)比實(shí)體店便宜12%，而今年只比實(shí)體店便宜7%。隨著價格差距的縮小，幾乎所有企業(yè)的利潤都受到了影響。The great exception is Alibaba, which handles nearly three-quarters of China’s e-commerce. Because its Taobao (consumer-to-consumer) and Tmall (business-to-consumer) platforms connect buyers and sellers, the firm does not carry the cost of logistics or inventory. It makes none of the products it sells. (American officials have branded it a “notorious” counterfeit market, a charge Alibaba deems unfair.) It makes money chiefly through advertisements, not user fees, a model that works thanks to its dominant position.

阿里巴巴是個大大的例外——它控制了中國電子商務(wù)將近75%的市場份額。由于阿里巴巴旗下?lián)碛小翱蛯汀钡奶詫毦W(wǎng)和“商對客”的天貓商城等平臺【注7】來 讓買賣雙方聯(lián)系起來，該公司無需承擔(dān)物流或是倉儲方面的成本。它銷售的產(chǎn)品也并非由自己生產(chǎn)（美國官員將阿里巴巴斥為一塊“臭名昭著”的假貨市場，而該公 司認(rèn)為這種指責(zé)有失公允）。阿里巴巴主要通過廣告來盈利，而不依靠用戶繳納的費(fèi)用。由于它在市場上占據(jù)了主導(dǎo)地位，這種模式行之有效。

Privately held Alibaba does not discuss its finances, but Yahoo! owns a stake (which it is winding down). The American internet firm’s disclosures this month reveal that Alibaba’s revenues nearly doubled year-on-year, to $2.9 billion for the three quarters ending in June. Its profits tripled to $730m over that period.

阿里巴巴是私人控股公司，并不會公開其財務(wù)狀況。但雅虎公司擁有阿里巴巴的股份（雅虎正在逐步減少其份額）。根據(jù)這家美國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司本月披露的數(shù)據(jù)顯示， 阿里巴巴的收入與上年同期相比幾乎翻了一番，在截至今年六月的三個季度中達(dá)到了29億美元；同期利潤也增長了兩倍，達(dá)到了7.3億美元。

Alibaba is bullish. In China e-commerce already accounts for nearly 5% of total retail sales, roughly the same as in America. But its potential is greater, argues the firm. In America, physical retailers are already efficient and everywhere. In China, they are highly fragmented, inefficient and barely visible outside big cities. So etailers could leapfrog them. 

阿里巴巴對前景感到樂觀。該公司認(rèn)為：中國的電子商務(wù)已經(jīng)占了零售銷售額總量的近5%，和美國的比例大致相同；但該行業(yè)的潛力尚未得到充分挖掘。在美國， 實(shí)體零售商無處不在，已經(jīng)有了不錯的效率。而在中國，實(shí)體零售產(chǎn)業(yè)高度分化、效率較低，而且在大城市之外鮮有涉足。因此，電商可以迎頭趕上，搶占市場。

Mr Zeng notes that legions of Chinese have yet to go online. As they do so, Alibaba will be watching, recording and analysing their shopping habits. The firm is devising a “big data” strategy. It hopes to help vendors harness customer information quickly and share insights among themselves. This could allow them to accelerate product-design cycles. 

曾鳴指出，中國目前還有大批民眾尚未開始網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物。隨著他們走上這條道路，阿里巴巴將觀察、記錄并分析其購物習(xí)慣。該公司正在設(shè)計一種“大數(shù)據(jù)”戰(zhàn)略，希望幫助各銷售商高效地利用客戶信息并彼此分享商業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。此舉可以讓他們縮短產(chǎn)品設(shè)計周期。

The firm’s lofty ambition is to help China move towards “mass customisation” and “user-generated innovation”—turning trendy jargon into reality. “The entire supply chain will sit on e-commerce,” insists Mr Zeng. “It will be not just a tool, but the heart of the entire economy.”

阿里巴巴有著宏圖壯志：幫助中國走向“大規(guī)模定制”和“用戶創(chuàng)新”——把這些時髦的行業(yè)術(shù)語變成現(xiàn)實(shí)。曾鳴堅稱：“整個供應(yīng)鏈將以電子商務(wù)為依托。電子商務(wù)將不僅僅是一種工具，更是整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的核心?！?/p>