阿里巴巴（Alibaba）能否成為中國下一家千億美元級別的上市公司？何時(shí)邁出這關(guān)鍵的一步？這家位于杭州的電子商務(wù)巨頭對這個問題依然含糊其辭。但公司創(chuàng)始人馬云遲早需要為投資者提供退路，更不用提公司的員工了。因此，首次公開募股將是最有可能的解決方案。公司應(yīng)該獲得怎樣的估值？目前應(yīng)該是開始思考這個問題的時(shí)候了。

    阿里巴巴的主營業(yè)務(wù)是銷售。它的在線商城天貓（Tmall）為耐克（Nike）和聯(lián)合利華（Unilever）等品牌提供了一個網(wǎng)絡(luò)店面，而淘寶則主要用于C2C交易。和它最為接近的同行應(yīng)該是亞馬遜（Amazon）和eBay?？上У氖牵诠乐捣矫?，并沒有一家與阿里巴巴完美匹配的公司：與亞馬遜不同，阿里巴巴并未持有庫存或管理倉庫；而與eBay不同，阿里巴巴公司的大多數(shù)收入都來自廣告，而不是用戶收費(fèi)。

    與此同時(shí)，它的業(yè)務(wù)范圍卻變得日益廣泛，這也可能使估值變得更加困難。阿里巴巴占據(jù)著中國電子商務(wù)市場的大部分份額。而據(jù)中國互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信息中心（China Internet Network Information Centre）統(tǒng)計(jì)，去年中國電子商務(wù)市值為2,040億美元。如今，阿里巴巴有一個移動操作系統(tǒng)，為供應(yīng)商提供貿(mào)易融資，甚至可能開始提供消費(fèi)貸款。公司首席策略師稱，公司的目的是打造“全球最大的數(shù)據(jù)共享平臺”。

    好在有兩個數(shù)據(jù)非常重要。一個是阿里巴巴能賣多少錢。另外一個則是公司的“提成”，即公司通過在它網(wǎng)站上完成的每筆交易中抽取的百分比。提成可能通過廣告或交易手續(xù)費(fèi)的形式，也可能綜合兩種方式。但最終，它代表了公司能夠從賣家手中抽取的現(xiàn)金。其他服務(wù)，例如借貸等也可能帶來收入。但在目前，它們主要只是留住用戶、維持市場份額的主要手段而已。

    我們來粗略估算一下它的市值。第一個問題是，總體市場能夠變得多大。假設(shè)未來兩年，中國電子商務(wù)以35%的速度增長，而阿里巴巴仍能夠保持目前約80%的市場份額。這將使它在2014年獲得價(jià)值接近3,000億美元的交易——超過2012年eBay市場份額的四倍。

    Could Alibaba be China's next $100 billion stock market listing? The Hangzhou-based e-commerce giant continues to be coy over when it will take the plunge. But sooner or later founder Jack Ma will need to offer some kind of exit for his backers, not to mention employees, and an initial public offering is the most likely solution. Now is a good time to start asking how the company should be valued.

    Alibaba's main business is selling. Its Tmall online stores provide a shop front for brands like Nike (NKE) and Unilever (UL), while Taobao is focused on consumer-to-consumer trade. The closest U.S. peers might be Amazon (AMZN) and eBay (EBAY). Sadly for valuation purposes, there's no perfect match: unlike Amazon, Alibaba doesn't hold inventory or manage warehouses, and unlike eBay, it gets most of its revenue from advertising, not charging users.

    Meanwhile, its range of services gets ever wider, and potentially harder to value. As well as accounting for the majority of China's e-commerce, a market worth $204 billion last year according to the China Internet Network Information Centre, Alibaba now has a mobile operating system, offers trade financing to vendors and may even start offering consumer loans. The company's chief strategist says it aims to be "the world's biggest data sharing platform."

    Fortunately, there are two numbers that really matter. One is how much Alibaba can sell. The other is its "take," or what percentage it gets from each transaction on its sites. That take might come through advertising or through transaction fees, or a mixture of both. But ultimately, it represents the cash the company can squeeze out of its sellers. Other services like lending may create revenue, but for now they are mainly ways to lock in users and maintain market share.

    Consider a back-of-envelope valuation exercise. The first question is how big the overall market can get. Say e-commerce in China grows 35% a year for the next two years, and that Alibaba can keep its current market share of around 80%. That would give it just under $300 billion of transactions in 2014 - over four times what eBay's marketplaces handled in 2012.

 現(xiàn)實(shí)情況下，會有更多因素影響阿里巴巴的市值。馬云必須抓住股市周期與技術(shù)周期的時(shí)機(jī)。阿里巴巴有許多外國投資者，因此，它最有可能在海外市場上市。而在外國市場，股票投資者往往會受到自身對中國的法規(guī)、經(jīng)濟(jì)與會計(jì)實(shí)務(wù)看法的影響。百度（Baidu）、人人（Renren）和新浪（Sina）等公司的估值所表現(xiàn)出的搖擺不定通常很難用各公司基本業(yè)務(wù)的表現(xiàn)來解釋。

    估值變化很快。2010年底，F(xiàn)acebook在融資時(shí)的估值為500億美元，而在2012年IPO時(shí)則達(dá)到了1,040億美元；但目前，它的股價(jià)僅有當(dāng)初估值的三分之二。最近，雅虎（Yahoo）將手頭持有的阿里巴巴股份中的一半出售給了阿里巴巴公司，交易對公司市值的認(rèn)定是400億美元。然而，與一家陷入困境的美國公司進(jìn)行雙邊談判跟上市比起來完全是兩碼事。

    此外，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的性質(zhì)決定了它內(nèi)在的不穩(wěn)定性。超強(qiáng)的盈利能力也會吸引超強(qiáng)的競爭對手，而且顛覆性技術(shù)可能在突然之間就取代了業(yè)已成熟的模式。當(dāng)年的網(wǎng)景（Netscape）和微軟（Microsoft）就充分證明，想象中不可動搖的市場地位可能瞬間就會易手。如果公司估值能夠達(dá)到十二位數(shù)，上市就宜早不宜遲。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

    譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

    In reality, many more factors will affect Alibaba's magic number. Ma will need to time the stock market cycle, but also the tech cycle. With many foreign backers, Alibaba will most likely need to list on foreign markets, where stock buyers will be influenced by what they think of China's regulation, economy and accounting practices. Valuations for companies like Baidu, Renren and Sina show gyrations not always explained by the performance of their underlying businesses.

    Valuations change quickly. Facebook's went from $50 billion in its fundraising at the end of 2010 to $104 billion at its IPO in 2012; the company now trades at just two-thirds that value. When Yahoo (YHOO) recently sold half its Alibaba stake back to the company, the deal valued the company at just $40 billion. But a bilateral negotiation by with a troubled U.S. company is very different than a stock market listing.

    Besides, internet companies are inherently volatile. Super profitability attracts super competition, and disruptive technologies can take even established models by surprise. Netscape and Microsoft both showed how supposedly unassailable market positions can be lost as well as won. If a twelve-digit valuation is within reach, it makes sense for Alibaba to open the cave sooner rather than later.